Can Trump Win Nevada?

On October 19, a thousand people or so packed into Stoney's Rockin' Country, a cavernous music venue not far from the Las Vegas airport, to watch the final televised confrontation between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. The party was hosted by the Trump-boosting Great America PAC, and before the main event, Larry Elder took to the stage to warm up the crowd. Elder, a black conservative radio host who calls himself "the Sage of South Central," excoriated the "RINOs" (Republicans In Name Only) who refuse to support Trump's candidacy.

"They say he's too 'vulgar,' " he said dismissively.

From the back of the room came a shout: "F— that!"

The room exploded in laughter, and many in the multiethnic crowd—including a group of young Chinese Americans, who carried signs sporting pro-Trump messages in simplified Chinese characters—turned around to applaud the twentysomething woman sporting a red "Make America Great Again" hat who had voiced that impolitic interjection.

One of the reasons Donald Trump's path to the White House looks increasingly perilous is that he's woefully underperforming Mitt Romney in several key swing states. If the state polls are correct, Trump is unlikely to match the 2012 Republican nominee's performance in New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina, to name a few. But there are a few notable exceptions, namely Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada, where Trump has held his own. Trump needs to carry all three if he wants to make it to the White House.