Can Trump Bring Peace to Israel and Palestine?

Nathan Thrall is a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, where he focuses on the Arab-Israeli conflict. A frequent contributor to the New York Review of Books and the London Review of Books, Thrall has also written for Commentary, which is to say he’s a writer who specializes in upsetting expectations. His first book, The Only Language They Understand: Forcing Compromise in Israel and Palestine, turns conventional thinking about the peace process and the contemporary foreign policy wisdom that undergirds it on its head. Eruptions of violence, Thrall argues, haven’t thwarted the chances of peace—rather, it’s only force that has compelled either side to make compromises. Maybe the road to peace goes through war.

Nathan is a friend—we first met more than a decade ago in Jerusalem, where he now lives with his wife Judy and three daughters, Zoe, Tessa, and Juno. We spoke recently about his new book, the new administration, and the chances for peace.

Lee Smith: You say that only force has compelled either of the two sides to compromise, but clearly you’re not just referring to violent force. What else constitutes force?

Nathan Thrall: In the book I define force as any form of pressure that threatens significant costs: not just violence but economic sanctions, unarmed protests, civil disobedience, and severe diplomatic coercion, such as the threat to withhold aid, impose a settlement in the U.N. Security Council, or downgrade relations. At various points throughout the Arab-Israeli conflict, each of these has compelled concessions on both sides. In Washington, what is perceived as tough talk—for example, the State Department “condemning” settlement construction rather than describing it as “unhelpful”—is frequently mistaken for pressure or even force. But if the party toward whom Washington directs such words does not see any significant cost emanating from them—and that is definitely the case in the example above—then it hardly constitutes coercion or the use of force, broadly defined.

LS: If you take your thesis to its extreme conclusion, isn’t the answer simply that one side should wipe out the other?