Ted Cruz has as good a chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2016 as Donald Trump or Marco Rubio. But there are serious doubts whether he can win the general election.
To capture the White House, Cruz would need to win most or all of the states carried by Mitt Romney in 2012. Romney won 206 electoral votes. Cruz would need to flip enough states won by President Obama to gain at least 64 more electoral votes to win the presidency.
That means winning "purple" or swing states. A Republican operative lists nine of them: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, and Virginia. Besides being toss-ups, they have something else in common. President Obama won all nine both in 2008 and 2012.
Can Cruz cut into the Obama electorate? That would be difficult for any GOP nominee, but particularly for Cruz. He calls himself the most reliably conservative candidate in the race. And his campaign focuses especially on winning the Christian evangelical vote.
Cruz and his strategists have an answer for doubters. With effective outreach to conservatives, he can gain the votes of the four million conservative voters who supposedly stayed home in 2012.
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04.16.2024