Be careful, Republicans, not to hike taxes on middle-class families

"We are going to give middle-class Americans a tax cut," White House economic adviser Gary Cohn said in Thursday's press conference.

We recognize that this is the intention of the White House and of congressional Republicans. But the current tax reform outline lacks details, and what details it does have spark concern that their "tax cut" could end up a tax hike for some people. There are political and economic perils here.

Doubling the standard deduction is a good way to cut and simplify taxes. But the outline specifies a tax hike that will negate this gain for families by eliminating the personal exemption and dependent exemptions. This could increase taxes for families with a few kids, depending on how the child tax credit is changed.

A family of five currently taking the standard deduction could see $8,000 more of income exposed to taxes under this plan. If that family currently deducts its mortgage interest and state and local taxes, then the added exposure is even bigger. This could leave them with a bigger tax bill than they have now.

It won't necessarily happen, of course. Republicans may stretch the 12-percent rate high enough that many more people fall into it and their taxes go down. Perhaps Republicans will increase the child tax credit by enough to offset the loss of the exemption. Or maybe they will modify the phase-out of the exemption so that high-earners who aren't wealthy yet will see no increase in taxes.