As long as Clinton struggles with millennials, Trump could win

Until Hillary Clinton fixes her electoral problems with millennials, this election will remain close and within striking distance for Donald Trump. Despite weeks of negative press and campaign errors, Trump only trails by 4 percent in the last two major polls.

The reason?

In Pew’s latest poll, Clinton is winning just 38 percent of voters under age 30, and Trump is only trailing her by 11 percent in a four-way race. In Reuters’ tracking data, she dips down to 36 percent. In both polls, Libertarian Gary Johnson scores more than 15 percent with this demo, and the Pew data suggests he is taking more Democrat-leaning votes than Republicans. Green Jill Stein’s numbers have dropped significantly, but she is still winning 5 percent of young voters.

Clinton is keeping pace with President Obama’s election numbers in every major demographic except millennials. Her margins among minority voters and college grads are gigantic. In the Pew data, she is winning black voters by 83 percent and Hispanics by 24 percent.

If she was winning anywhere close to the support President Obama had with younger voters, this election would be all but over. Instead, she is underperforming his 2008 and 2012 performances by more than 20 percent.