Another Reason to Drill

One of President Donald Trump's most urgent policy priorities is to cut taxes for businesses and workers. It's a promise that Republicans must fulfill if they want to restore American prosperity. But the tax plan—which one of us, Moore, helped write—has a $2 trillion to $4 trillion revenue shortfall over the next 10 years. Faster job and GDP growth, both spurred by those tax cuts, will help halve that gap. But where will the rest of the revenue come from to make sure the GOP doesn't blow an even bigger hole in the budget deficit? That's an issue Republicans aren't even close to resolving.

One idea that some in the Trump White House have floated, import tariffs, would be profoundly unwise. But there is another revenue jackpot to be tapped, one right below us—our vast energy resources. Thanks to the technological revolution that has made shale oil and gas a readily available asset, the United States is now sitting atop the biggest trove of recoverable energy of any nation in the world.

After carefully reviewing the best geological surveys, both from government and from private research groups such as the RAND Corporation, we estimate that by expanding energy development on federal lands the government could raise as much as $3 trillion in royalties, leases, and taxes over the next 25 years. That revenue would help reduce the budget deficit, pay for tax reform, and finance the infrastructure improvements that both parties say they support.

A pro-drilling energy strategy could also raise GDP by $150 billion a year and reduce the U.S. trade deficit sharply. The $200 billion Americans spend each year on imported oil could be cut to near zero within five years. The Institute for Energy Research estimates that as many as six million new trucking, welding, pipefitting, engineering, and construction jobs could be created. Most of these would be union jobs, and many would pay $60,000 to $100,000 a year. That would be more jobs than the entire employed workforce in Michigan and Ohio, combined.

It is hard to imagine any competing national policies that could deliver anything like this kind of economic dividend while also delivering badly needed government revenues.