About that Shock Fox News Poll for President Trump

The latest Fox News poll is pretty dismal for President Trump: Just 38 percent of registered voters approve of the job he’s doing, his lowest rating in the poll since Fox began asking the question in February. Trump’s disapproval is at an all-time high, too, with 57 percent of registered voters disapproving of his job; 49 percent saying they do so “strongly.” That’s also the president’s worst showing.

On the issues, Trump is getting worse ratings than his overall approval for everything—taxes, North Korea, Iran, and health care—except for the economy, where 44 percent approve of his job (and 49 percent disapprove). But even on the economy, which is humming along with a near daily new record-high on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Trump’s approval is down from where it has been in past polls. You can read more of the results of the poll, which finds Americans giving high marks to the previous two presidents, here.

It’s impossible to draw direct parallels between presidencies, but perhaps it’s instructive to look how where other recent presidents were when they hit such low numbers: Barack Obama’s all-time low in the Fox News poll for job approval was 38 percent. That number came in September 2014 as the threat from ISIS became clearer to the American public and the president struggled to articulate a military strategy. Two months later, Republicans keep their House majority and took over the Senate in the midterm election.

As with Obama, George W. Bush did not get below 38 percent approval in Fox’s poll until his second term. In November 2005, Bush dropped to 36 percent before jumping back up into the 40s. But after March 2006, with the Iraq war at its most unpopular and his Social Security reform effort dead, Bush was rarely above 40 percent for the rest of his presidency. The GOP lost control of both houses of Congress that year, Bush had few domestic accomplishments thereafter, and he left office with a 34 percent approval rating.

What this milestone means for Trump, a president and political figure who has defied many of the so-called iron laws of politics, won’t be immediately clear. But it underscores the difficult political position he finds himself in, as far as accomplishing his agenda. Trump needs Republicans in Congress to accomplish something big, most likely tax reform, if the party is going to have any kind of positive message heading into the 2018 midterms.