Writing in mid-June, a couple of days after Donald Trump announced his candidacy, we offered the judgment that he should not be our next president: “We're not Trump enthusiasts. We're not even Trump fellow travelers. We're closer to Trump deriders."
And so we unapologetically remain. It would be ungracious not to acknowledge Trump's remarkable standing in the polls six months later. But we see no reason to alter our conclusion that Donald Trump shouldn't be president of the United States. Indeed, Trump's behavior over this period has confirmed our judgment. If back in June we wrote that the rest of the presidential field could use "A Little Touch of Trump," it's fair to say that we've gotten more Trump than we bargained for.
Yet we continue to trust Republican primary voters will not select Donald Trump as the GOP nominee for president. And we continue to believe, as we said at the outset, that more conventional politicians could learn something from Trump. We suggested then that "politics is about dreams as much as it is about deliverables, about pride as much as it's about pocketbooks. Trump understands that. It's not clear most of the rest of the field does." We pointed out then that "Trump understands that many Americans believe winning isn't everything, but it's a good thing. A very good thing. It's not clear most of the rest of the field does." We observed then that "Trump understands that Americans have deep doubts about the competence and probity of our political class. It's not clear most of the rest of the field does." And we wrote then that "Trump understands that it's okay to say something the media elite will shake their collective head at. It's not clear most of the rest of the field does."
It does seem that the rest of the field, under the pressure of Trump, has moved up the learning curve in understanding these points, and more broadly in grasping the mood of the body politic. And so, six months later, while we will continue to believe Donald Trump should not be the nominee, we also offer a suggestion that will perhaps invite ridicule: The Republican party has not been hurt by Trump's candidacy. Indeed the GOP may well have benefited from it.
How can we reach so shocking a conclusion? For one thing, there's simply no evidence the Trumpian interlude has hurt the GOP. The Republican party's overall favorable rating hasn't changed in these last six months. The percentage of Americans identifying as Republicans hasn't declined. Obama's approval rating hasn't gone up. The Pew Research Center regularly asks which party would do a better job on the economy. In July, Democrats held a three-point edge; in December, Pew found Republicans leading by five. In the same Pew polls, Republicans improved from -2 to +2 on handling immigration and from +12 to +14 on handling terrorism.